Release Dates

I have no professional experience in marketing, so I don't have historical statistics to look at concerning the viability of projecting release dates. But it seems a safe bet to say pushing a public release date back is a big no-no. And it's a common enough problem that release dates mean very little to me these days.

Whether or not game publishers were in the habit of marketing internal estimations back in this industry's infancy (I consider these its toddler years), I can't remember. But now I'm jaded, as a game consumer. Now, my inclination is to disbelieve any date until the box is on the shelf. Due to the habits of some, the whole industry has lost credibility with me in this regard.

The consequences of that skepticism?

• I'm less inclined to preorder games. That money could be lying fruitless is the retailer's till for so long.
• I'm less inclined to pay attention to the game's marketing as a whole. A dog will salivate over a piece of meat held in front of it for a good length of time. But if you act like you're going to give it the meat, then take it away, offer it, then take it away...then the dog loses interest. People are no different.
• I'm less inclined to trust the publisher. I know that the publisher knows complications arise and that release projections are uncertain. Offering someone information knowing it may be false is a sure way to lose rapport and undermine your own marketing potential. More importantly, it's unethical.

So why do publishers do it? We're talking about major publishers here, so it's not just oblivious idealism of the inexperienced.

Is it negative marketing? There is such a marketing tactic as intentionally bothering customers. It's usually for reinforcing recognition of a brand name of a common and innocuous product (it's also unethical). Perhaps it's intended to encourage word-of-mouth advertisement, when people are telling their friends how disappointed they are that a game's date got pushed back (again), with the assumption that the publisher will gain more customers than it will lose.

Or perhaps publishers release uncertain dates because their marketing strategy is heavily dependent on a pre-release calendar. Perhaps it's a gamble in which the publisher believes that if it begins its marketing ramp so many weeks before release and that date holds, then the extra impact would be well worth the risk of the date slipping and those negative consequences listed above. This strategy seems to assume that consumers are more likely to purchase a product after it has been withheld from them (and anticipation has been allowed to build) than if the product is already available for purchase. Without having figures to convince me that assumption is justified, it seems that the publisher would lose as many potential customers from the frustration of releasing that anticipation too late.


So I have three questions about publicly advertising internal release estimations:

• Why do publishers do it?
• Do the advantages outweigh the negative consequences mentioned above?
• How do the consequences compare between supposedly solid estimations and ones the publisher underlines as tentative and only "our best guess"?

Sucker!

It's sad how, no matter how many times I see release dates pushed back and no matter how often I say the dates advertised are utterly meaningless, there are always a few that I make the mistake of believing anyway.

The Two Worlds release date has been pushed back again, to August 21st.

I actually believed Grand Theft Auto 4's, too. Now, I'm thinking that one was just like Alan Wake last year: the first date was only offered to help Microsoft advertise the 360.

These dates aren't mistakes. They're lies. The developers and publishers know how difficult it is to predict the release date more than a month or two in advance, yet they advertise baseless dates anyway. It's not just bad marketing. It's selfish and immoral.

One thing I really despise is when people pretend business is somehow separate from the rest of life when it comes to morality (ethics, if you prefer). If you intentionally mislead someone at home or you intentionally mislead someone for business, it's a wicked act either way. Grow up. Treat your customers with the respect of neighbors and friends.

last minute pitch

A techno composer once told me how his album had been postponed for over a year because the record label didn't want to release it into heavy competition, and competition kept surprising them (events, album release dates, etc). The publisher was delaying a finished product so long it hurt the designer, and was making no apparent progress in its attempts to time the product's release optimally.

I was reading today about how Amazon is already selling Spore for just $20 and about LittleBigPlanet's lackluster sales. And I had to wonder how timing has played into the sales of both. This has been a phenomenal season with exceptionally heavy competition for all games.

If a product must face unexpectedly heavy competition, what can either the publisher or developer do in less than a month's time to improve their odds?

subsurface education ... and stuff

I'm working on a project, for my Technical and Professional Writing class, in which I've been asked to brainstorm questions that would be relevant to closing a bridge for preservation and diverting a major thoroughfare in the process. It's much more complicated than that, actually.

I was surprised to realize that I'm instinctively using my Sim City experience as a model for the situation. For example, one of my questions is: "Is the thoroughfare/bridge in an industrial, commercial, or residential district?" I only played the original version of the game, so I can't call on the intricacies which are probably present in newer versions. Anyway, I realize now that Sim City did quite a bit to introduce me to the real strife of urban planning.

It makes me wonder how other games have affected my knowledge or perception of the world in small ways like that.


On a mildly related note: I reviewed a couple of old video presentations of Spore today. It's still the upcoming game I'm most anxious to play. In any RPG that offers character customization, I usually spend hours tweaking my characters to be just right. That part's a game in itself. So the prospect of an entire game built around that particular avenue of fun has me drooling to no end.

I also reviewed some Hellgate: London videos. That one's still in my Must-Have category, but I think the shine has worn off a bit. I believe a lot of that has to do with the underwhelming sound effects, as I previously discussed. I also hate seeing missile weapons (bullets, rockets, arrows, etc) that have no visible force of impact. The punch is important.

I noticed on Hellgate's site that there's a rough release date now of "summer 07". As pleased as I am that I don't have to wait until winter to get my hands on it (maybe... we'll see, right?), I'm irritated when any publisher or developer talks of release more than a month in advance. Even rough dates like that are so often false in this industry that early dates always sound disingenuine. Just tell me when it's done and on its way to manufacturing.

Speaking of false release publicity, here we are approaching March and Alan Wake is nowhere to be seen. I can't say I've ever been that excited about this one though. It got a lot of hype for graphics, but there's next to no information concerning gameplay. I'm betting that it will feel something like Condemned; good for a rental, but not worth buying.

On the other hand, Mass Effect has me more excited than I used to be. I guess I have more of an impression of open-ended gameplay now. KotOR, for me, was a rental. It offered some character customization, but the adventure felt linear. It's hard not to expect the same in Bioware's new work. I love depthful storylines and dynamics, but not at the expense of control. Make it fluid. Bioware started campaigning this too early as well. It makes me wonder if that's a tactic to estimate potential interest and attract further investment than is already secured.

And lastly, there's the game that dropped off the face of the Earth: Possession. There were a couple videos about a year ago, but I haven't heard anything about it since. It was a fun idea, playing as a zombie commander in an attempt to convert the whole city.


Anyway, back to my schoolwork. =/